Stretty Rant

Talking Numbers: Deeper Dive Into Manchester United’s Derby Debacle

Embed from Getty Images

Manchester United suffered a terrible loss in the big derby against Manchester City last weekend. The Red Devils were nowhere near their counterparts in a 6-3 loss which had seen them lose 4-0 before the half-time and 6-1 at one point as well. It was only the two late goals from Anthony Martial which made the scoreline look just a bit less horrific. But nevertheless, this was a performance the Devils should be disgraced for, despite the fact Man City are clearly a much better side. A performance like this in a derby is never acceptable and Erik ten Hag’s team will need to continue working hard to fix many of their failings. The first chance for them to at least partially redeem themselves and forget about the thrashing will be in Europa League against Omonia. But before the trip to Cyprus, we still need to talk about this last game.

We have seen what are the three things we learned from the Manchester Derby, but now is the time to take a closer look at the numbers and underlying metrics to try and see what else needs mentioning and what we maybe missed out on spotting right away. Here is what we learned.

The Expected Goals Story

Manchester City scored six goals on the day with the expected goals tally of 2.9, according to FBREF. Man United, on the other hand, had scored three with 1.5 xG to their name, which is ultimately both teams overscoring their expected goals by double. And in a high scoring game such as this derby, it is expected that the xG numbers will be much lower. City’s finishing was absolutely clinical, while United did not really create many chances. In fact, Antony’s stunning goal has a very low xG value, while Martial’s goal from the penalty spot accounts for just over half of United’s total xG. It is here that we see just how much United’s poor attitude helped City score so many goals.

Grealish’s Underrated Trait

There were many negative aspects about Jack Grealish in the media since he joined Man City and it is a fact he has not performed as you would expect from a 100 million player. But against United, he has shown an underrated trait of his. Grealish was part of 11 shot-creating actions, by far the most of any player on the pitch. These are the offensive actions which directly lead to a shot, such as passes, dribbles and, one often overlooked thing, drawing fouls. While Haaland and Foden got the most attention for obvious reasons, Grealish was also doing important things for Pep Guardiola’s side.

Eriksen Not For This Role Against City

If there was one thing the numbers have shown us in this Man United team, it is that Christian Eriksen should not have started in the central midfielder role against a side such as City. He may have done well previously, but for a team of this quality, a player with more tenacity and defensive rigour would have been more needed. Eriksen was dribbled past three times from his three attempts to stop attacks, he did not make a single interception and his pressures on opponents were just slightly above Casemiro’s output, despite the fact the Brazilian played an entire hour less than the Dane. It simply seems that he was not the right choice for this role against such a tough opposition.